Harris and Trump battle to be the 'change' candidate: From the Politics Desk (2024)

Welcome to the online version ofFrom the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray looks at how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to position themselves as the candidate of change. Plus, we preview the final primary day of the year tomorrow.

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Poll shows Trump winning the 'change' argument — for now

By Mark Murray

It’s not too surprising that the latest national New York Times/Siena College poll finds a razor-close contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. After all, most national and battleground polls have had the race within the margin of error.

It’s also not surprising that Trump has the advantage on the economy and immigration, while Harris is ahead on abortion, as other polls show.

But what is surprising in the survey is that Trump is winning the “change” argument, which could very well be important in deciding this contest between a former president and a sitting vice president.

In the NYT/Siena poll, 25% of likely voters said Harris represents major change and 15% said she represents minor change, while 55% said she represents more of the same.

That’s compared with 53% of voters who see Trump as representing major change, 8% as minor change, and 34% as more the same.

Why is this change argument important? As my colleague Chuck Todd recently wrote, “The candidate who loses will likely be the one that a majority of swing voters view as more ‘incumbent-like’ in their minds. And the debate … will go a long way in establishing that, depending on how well the candidates do at painting the other as part of the current problem.”

Much of Harris’ candidacy since President Joe Biden’s exit has been casting herself as the change agent — and attempting to frame Trump as the incumbent.

“Our nation, with this election, has a precious, fleeting opportunity to move past the bitterness, cynicism and divisive battles of the past, a chance to chart a new way forward,” Harris said in her convention speech a month ago.

Contrast that to the change rhetoric Trump was using when Biden was in the race. “He has not done a good job,” Trump said of Biden in their June debate. “He has done a poor job. And inflation’s killing our country. It is absolutely killing us.”

We’re likely to see plenty of other polling on this dynamic, especially after the debate. But at least in this one NYT/Siena poll, it’s Trump who’s winning the change argument.

What to watch on the final primary day of the year

By Adam Wollner, Alexandra Marquez and Adam Edelman

Tomorrow’s marquee political event will, of course, be the first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. But Tuesday will also be the final primary day of the 2024 election cycle, with voters in New Hampshire, Delaware and Rhode Island casting ballots for down-ballot contests.

Here are a few worth keeping an eye on:

Battleground governor’s race: Tuesday’s primaries will set up the matchup for one of just two gubernatorial races in presidential battleground states this year (the other being North Carolina).

On the Republican side, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte is the leading candidate in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu. Her main opponent is former state Senate President Chuck Morse, who has attempted to attack Ayotte as insufficiently loyal to Trump.

As for the Democrats, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is facing off against Cinde Warmington, a former health care lobbyist and a member of the state’s Executive Council, in what polls show is a relatively close race.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has rated the general election as a “toss up.”

Democratic divisions in New Hampshire: The Granite State is also hosting one of the most bitter Democratic House primaries of the year, a contest that has split the loyalties of key party power brokers.

Maggie Goodlander, a former senior official in the Biden White House and the Justice Department, and Colin Van Ostern, a former member of the state Executive Council, are squaring off for the seat held by Rep. Annie Kuster, who’s retiring after six terms.

The two have traded increasingly sharp attacks over who would be a better champion for reproductive rights and the influence of outside money, with campaigns and groups combining to spend $3.5 million on the race.

Goodlander, who is married to White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, is backed by national figures like Hillary Clinton and EMILY’s List, while Van Ostern touts support from Kuster and other local party officials. However, former Gov. John Lynch recently switched his endorsem*nt from Van Ostern to Goodlander, citing “the tension and the nastiness” of the campaign.

The winner of the primary will enter the general election as the favorite in the blue-leaning 2nd District.

Breaking barriers in Delaware: State Sen. Sarah McBride is expected to take another step toward becoming the first transgender person elected to Congress. She is the heavy favorite in the Democratic primary for Delaware’s at-large congressional district, raking in campaign cash and winning endorsem*nts from key party officials.

If McBride wins the Democratic nomination as expected, she will be the clear front-runner to win the deep-blue Delaware seat in November. McBride has already broken several barriers: She was the first out trans individual to speak at a Democratic National Convention in 2016, and became the first out trans state senator in the country in 2021.

McBride is running for the seat currently occupied by another history-making Delaware Democrat, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is seeking the Senate seat Sen. Tom Carper is vacating. Blunt Rochester became the first woman and the first Black person to represent Delaware in Congress after her 2016 election.

Now she’s running unopposed for the Democratic Senate nomination and will likely coast to victory this fall. Blunt Rochester and Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks are seeking to add to the ranks of Black women who have served in the Senate, currently at just three.

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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